Table of Contents - Plenary/Oral Presentations

AWRA 2009 Spring Specialty Conference

Managing Water Resources Development in a Changing Climate
May 4 - 6, 2009
Anchorage, Alaska

NOTE: The papers and abstracts presented below are in PDF pdf format .
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Monday / May 4 / 8:30 AM - 10:00 AM

Welcome and Opening Remarks

Gerald Sehlke
President, American Water Resources Association

Idaho National laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID

Michael R. Lilly
Conference General Chair
GW Scientific, Fairbanks, AK

Horacio A. Toniolo
Conference Technical Program Chair
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK

Keynote Speaker

Larry Hartig ( bio )
State of Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation
Juneau, AK
"Climate Change in Alaska, How Do We Meet the Challenges Ahead?"

John Walsh, Ph.D. ( bio )
President’s Professor of Climate Change & Chief Scientist,
International Arctic Research Center,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
"Climate Change and the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle"


Monday Oral Technical Sessions / May 4, 2009
SESSION 1: Regional Watershed Responses I
Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change: Feather River Basin, California
Kathryn Koczot, U.S. Geological Survey, San Diego, CA
Integrated Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins Across the United States
Steve Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay
Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change
Mark Mastin
Simulated Watershed Scale Snowmelt and Ground-water Recharge Trends from 1960- to 2099 for Basins Draining to Long Island Sound: Hydrologic Response to Climate Change
David Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom
SESSION 2: Balancing Water and Energy Resources
Integrated Management of Water and Energy Resources
Kristine Shaw, Peter Newell
Assessing Hydrologic Vulnerability of Sierra Nevada Watersheds with Climate Warming Conditions and Hydropower Operations
David E. Rheinheimer, Joshua H. Viers, Jay R. Lund, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal Mehta
Potential Water Constraints on Energy Production in the Colorado River Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios
Timothy McPherson, Michael Rivera, David Judi, Darrin Visarraga
Oil Shale Development in the Western United States: Water Resources Challenges, Impacts and Solutions
Steven Burian, Eric Jones, Ramesh Goel, Andy Hong, Liang Li, Zhixiong Cha, Beth Dudley-Murphy, Greg Nash
SESSION 3: Transboundary and International Water Management I
Geospatial Mapping and Analysis of Water Availability-Demand-Use within the Mara River Basin
Christina Hoffman, Assefa Melesse, Michael McClain
Water Resources in Sudan
Maria E. Milanes-Murcia
Addressing Climate Change in Outflow Management Studies of the Great Lakes
Anthony Eberhardt
Sustainability of Irrigated Agriculture in the Yaqui River Basin, México
Jose Luis Minjares Lugo, Roberto F. Salmon Castelo, Juan B. Valdes, Lucas A. Oroz Ramos, Raúl López-Zavala
SESSION 4: Regional Watershed Responses II
Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change: Flint River Basin, Georgia
Lauren Hay, Steven L. Markstrom   
Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change-South Fork Flathead River, Montana
Katherine Chase  
Climate Change: A Tale of Two Colorado Ski Areas
William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, Steven Markstrom  
Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change: Sagehen Creek, California
Steve Regan, Steven L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, Richard Niswonger
SESSION 5: Policy and Management I
Climate Change, Water Resources Management, and Planning: A Federal, Interagency Collaboration
Julie Kiang, J. Rolf Olsen, Kathleen White, Levi Brekke, Roger Pulwarty, David Raff, D. Phil Turnipseed, Robert Webb   
Engaging Water Resource Managers in the Policy Dialogue on Aquatic Invasive Species
Jennifer Conner  
Saving All the Pieces, Staying Grounded (Climate, Water, Soil, Cities)
John Wiener  
Reducing Our Carbon Footprint One Step at a Time - A Municipal Prospective
Wendy Kemp
SESSION 6: Water Quality I
Water Quality Effects of Fire Retardant Application in a Small Tundra Lake near Hughes Alaska
Ben Kennedy   
Mercury Distribution In Water and Biota in Diverse Southeast Alaskan Watersheds
Sonia Nagorski, Daniel Engstrom, John Hudson, Eran Hood, David Krabbenhoft, John DeWild, George Aiken
Watershed Yields of Organic Matter and Nutrients in Southeast Alaska as a Function of Glacial Coverage
Durelle Scott, Eran Hood, Jason Fellman, Rob Spencer, Rick Edwards, Dave D'Amore
Modeling Water Quality Impacts of Ethanol Corn Production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Paul Hummel, Anthony Donigian, Jr., David Wells, Roberta Parry
SESSION 7: Regional Watershed Responses III
Analyzing the Effects of Climate, Landuse, and Management Changes in a Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Paul Hummel, John L. Kittle, Jr., Thomas E. Johnson   
Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change: Sprague River Basin, Oregon
John Risley, Lauren Hay, Steve Markstrom
Assessing Climate-Change Impacts on the 2-Year Flood in Selected Basins Across the United States: A Probabilistic Approach Using Ensembles of Climate Model Predictions
John Walker, Michael D. Dettinger, Lauren E. Hay, Stephen L. Markstrom  
Monitoring Headwater Streams for Landscape Response to Climate Change
Matt O'Connor
SESSION 8: Policy and Management II
Climate Change Decision Support Tools for Water Managers
George Smith   
Management of Agricultural Water Resources under Uncertainty for the Dual Purposes of Conservation and Enhancement
Venkatesh Uddameri, E. Annette Hernandez
The Implications of Climate Change on the Ohio River and the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission
Gerald Schulte  
An Overview of AWRA’s National Water Policy Dialogue - Gerald Sehlke, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaha Falls, ID
SESSION 9: Water Quality II
Stream Temperature Monitoring Network for Alaska's Salmon Streams
Sue Mauger, Jeff Davis, Gay Davis
Climate Warming in California's Sierra Nevada: Potential Water Temperature Impacts and Resiliency
Sarah Null, Joshua H. Viers, Jeffrey Mount, Michael L. Deas, Stacy K. Tanaka  
Projecting the Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on the Temperature of Surface Runoff Into Cold-Water Streams
Ben Janke, William R. Herb, Omid Mohseni, Heinz G. Stefan
Variability, Seasonality, and Persistence of Fecal Coliform Bacteria in Alaska Urban and Semi-Urban Streams
William Schnabel
Tuesday Oral Technical Sessions / May 5, 2009
SESSION 10: Addressing Uncertainty with Models I
Incorporating the Uncertainty of Climate Change Predictions into a Watershed Modeling
Suresh Hettiarachchi, Ted Shannon, Jeff Christopherson, Scott Zilka, Matt Redington
The Value of Uncertain Irrigation Water Deliveries
Mohamed Said Gheblawi  
Digital Elevation Data for Hydrologic Applications: Computational Efficiency in Two-Dimensional Modeling
David Judi, Timothy McPherson, Steven Burian  
Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic, Spatially Distributed Watershed Models - Application to the Regional Simulation Model
Zuzanna Zajac, Rafael Munoz-Carpena
SESSION 11: Managing Arctic Watersheds I
Streamflow Estimation in Arctic Watersheds with Sparse Data Sets
Douglas Kane, E. K. Youcha, E, D, Trochim, M. R. Lilly, H. A. Toniolo   
Hydrologic Responses of Catchments with Warm Permafrost
Larry Hinzman  
Trends in Streamflow in the Yukon River Basin from 1944 to 2005 and the Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Tim Brabets
Upper Kuparuk River Snow Distributions for Hydrological Analysis in Arctic Alaska
Sveta Berezovskaya, Glen Liston, Douglas Kane
SESSION 12: Erosion and Sediment Transport
Fire Recovery Watershed Runoff Modeling in Warm Springs Creek, Idaho: Developing a Better Model and Implications for a Changing Climate
Jonathan Ambrose, Rob Richardson   
Modeling Sediment Impacts of Training Activities on Military Installations: Approach and Baseline Model Results
Anthony S. Donigian Jr, John C. Imhoff, Anurag Mishra, Parick N. Deliman, Eileen Regan  
Alaska Erosion: Assessing Vulnerability of Alaska's Coastal and Riverine Communities
Christy Miller, David Broadfoot  
Glacier Dammed Lakes Impacting Different Alaskan Drainages After 30 Years
Dave Wolfe
SESSION 13: Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts 1
Integrating Spatially Explicit Watershed Models with In-Stream Habitat Models: A Discussion on Constraints with Regard to the Resolution of the Data
Barnali Dixon, J. Earls, A.F. Casper, and J.A. Gore   
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Ability to Maintain Sreamflows to Sustain the Trout Fishery in the Upper Carson River
John Tracy  
Implications of Climate Change for Okanagan Basin Water Availability and Salmonid Restoration Planning
Clint Alexander, Kim Hyatt, Stacy Langsdale, Margot Stockwell
SESSION 14: Addressing Uncertainty with Models II
Drought Management Implications for Irrigated Agriculture in Georgia - Mark Masters, Flint River Water Policy Center -
Albany State University, Albany, GA  
Linking RISA Scientists and Water Resource Managers: Climate Science & Water Management
Christine Kirchhoff   
HydroGeoSphere Application to Evaluate Basin-Scale Integrated Surface-Subsurface Water Flow and Transport Systems in the Central Valley of California
George Matanga, C. Mary Kang, Lorri Peltz-Lewis, Lisa Rainger, Rob McLaren, Don DeMarco
Can We Use Hydrologic Models Calibrated With Past Data For Climate Change Impact Studies?
Annie Poulin, François P.Brissette, Robert Leconte
SESSION 15: Managing Arctic Watersheds II
Application of Reservoirs in the Arctic to Reduce Future Water Use Uncertainty
Horacio Toniolo, Michael Lilly  
Arctic Lakes and Water Use, Separating Natural Variability from Water Use
Michael R. Lilly
Current and Future Evaporative Losses from North Slope Lakes
Bill Schnabel, Michael Lilly, Amy Tidwell, Horacio Toniolo
Two Distinct Mechanisms of Lake Hydrological and Chemical Change Along the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska
Christopher Arp, Benjamin M. Jones, Frank E. Urban, Joel A. Schmutz
SESSION 16: Urban Hydrology
How Climate Change Impacts Urban Runoff and Water Quality Design
John Hayes, C. V. Privette, III, S. J. Klaine   
Managing Water Supplies and Quality in a Highly Urbanized Basin
Bruce Lytle, Frank P. Jaeger
SESSION 17: Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts II
Intrinsic Potential: A Tool for Identifying Salmon Habitat at the Landscape Scale
Tom Miewald, Gordon H. Reeves, Kelly M. Burnett, Analisa Noel McKay, Matthew Goslin, Lee E. Benda, Allison Bidlack, Erica McCall
Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish and Wildlife Management
Erica Betts, Amy Tidwell, Jeff Adams, Philip Martin   
Variability and Adaptation in British Columbia's Freshwater Ecosystems
Katherine Wieckowski, Marc Neltiz, Marc Porter, Katrina Bennett, Todd Hatfield, Katy Bryan, Dave Marmorek  
Temporal Patterns and Spatial Variability in North Carolina Piedmont Stream Temperature
Johnny Boggs, G. Sun, S.G. McNulty, W. Swartley, E. Treasure, W. Summer
SESSION 18: Addressing Uncertainty with Models III
Climate Change Adaptation of Stormwater Management Systems Charging Water Suppliese
Latham Stack, Michael Simpson, Thomas Crosslin, Derek Sowers, Colin Lawson   
Weather Modification and Climate Variability Impacts on Streamflow
Haroon Stephen, Cody Moser, Oubeid Aziz, Glenn Tootle  
Monthly Precipitation Prediction Using Cyclostationary EOF and an AR model
Gwangseob Kim, Ming Dong Sun, Kun Yeun Han
Adapting Water Management Programs to Climate Change at the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority
Ryan Ness, Don Haley
SESSION 19: Changing Precipitation Patterns?
Closing the Loop of Climate Feedback in the Design of Large-Scale Water Resources Project
Faisal Hossain, Indu Jeyachandran, Abebe Sine Gebregiorgis   
Flood Frequency Analysis in Light of Climate Variability and Change
Amy Tidwell, Greta Myerchin   
Anaylsis of Impact Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall in Korea Using A2 Climate Scenario and Extreme Indices
Byung-Sik Kim, BoKyung Kim, Hyun-Han Kwon, Seok-Yong Yoon (ABSTRACT 
The Impact of Stochastic Weather Generator Characteristic on Daily Precipitation Downscaling
Pao-Shan Yu, Shien-Tsung Chen, Chin-Yuan Lin  
SESSION 20: Impacts to Ground Water
Climate Change and Potential Impacts on Groundwater Levels Along the Rio Grande
Kelly Isaacson, Julie Coonrod  
Building Coupled Ground-Water/Surface-Water Models to Simulate Climate Change
Randall J. Hunt, John Doherty, John F. Walker, Steven M. Westenbroek, Lauren E. Hay  
The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge: with Particular Emphasis on the Impact on Florida
Frederick Bloetscher, Tara M. Bardi  
SESSION 21: Changing Everglades Management?
Climate Change Considerations for Everglades Restoration
Stuart Appelbaum
Climate Change Concerns for Everglades Restoration Planning
Glenn Landers  
Everglades Water-Quality in an Uncertain Future
Stuart Muller  
Linking Saltwater Intrusion With Impacts to Bald Cypress (Taxodium Distichum) Swamp in the Floodplain of the Loxahatchee River Using Dynamic Factor Modeling
David Kaplan, Rafael Muñoz-Carpena, Axel Ritter
SESSION 22: Addressing Uncertainty with Models IV
Survey of NOAA Downscaling Approaches and Application
Lynn E. Johnson, Timothy Schneider   
An Automated Statistical Downscaling Approach for Hydrologically-Based Climate-Change Studies Across the Nation
Christian Ward-Garrison, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom  
Coupled Surface-Water/Ground-Water Model Response to Climate and Land-Use Change: Black Earth Creek, Wisconsin
Stephen Westenbroek, Randall J. Hunt, Lauren E. Hay, Steve L. Markstrom  
Development of a Distributed Hydrological Model for Accurate Estimation of Watershed Response
Kun-Yeun Han, Gwangseob Kim, Keuksoo Kim
SESSION 23: Changing Drought Conditions?
Price and Rate-Structure Modifications as Drought and Climate Variability Management Tools for an Urban Water Utility
David Rosenberg   
Monitoring the Effects of Climate Change on Springs, Seeps and Other Water Resources in the Mojave National Preserve
Boris Poff, Debra Hughson  
Development of a Climate Forecast Decision Support Tool Using Stakeholder Involvement for Assessing and Examining Drought Risks and Water Management Strategies for the Upper Rio Hondo Basin, NM
Thomas Lowry, Jesse D Roach, Vincent C Tidwell, Elizabeth H Richards
SESSION 24: Economic, Engineering and Science Impacts
Assessment of Learning Experiences of Undergraduate Researchers in an NSF/REU Site on Watershed Sciences and Engineering
Vinod Lohani, Tamim Younos  
NASA's Applied Science Program
Ted Engman, Steven Ambrose, Jared Entin, David Toll  
Spatially-explicit Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Willamette River
Heejun Chang, Ilwon Jung, Brian Block, Sarah Praskievicz  
SESSION 25: Panel: Addressing Climate Change in Alaska, Where are We as a State? Where are We Going?

Alaska has taken a leading role in determining how Climate Change will impact its citizens and the mitigation and adaptation approaches needed to take us into the future. The panel will provide on overview of the current sub-cabinet activities and issues related to water resources and supplies, coastal erosion and other issues facing Alaskans. Alaska deals with extreme weather conditions on a regular basis and can help lead the national dialogue on changing climate conditions.


Jackie Poston, Alaska Climate Change Strategy/State of Alaska, Anchorage, AK


Watch Video

Amy Holman, NOAA, Anchorage, AK
Larry Hinzman, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK
Michael Coffey, Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, Juneau, AK
Peter Larsen, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA

Wednesday Oral Technical Sessions / May 6, 2009
SESSION 26: Water Supply Management I
Conventional and Decentralized Water Supply Infrastructure: Energy Consumption and Carbon Footprint
Tamim Younos, Caitlin Grady, Teresa Chen, Tammy Parece   
Managed Flow Regimes and Climate Change in the Colorado River
Michael Rivera, Dave Judi, Tim McPherson
Using Projected Climate Information to Plan for Future Water Supplies
Mariza Costa-Cabral, Sujoy B. Roy, Limin Chen  
Water Supply Utilities and Climatic Change: the Central Texas Experience
Laura Stroup, Kevin Romig
SESSION 27: Increased Flooding and Flood Management?
Potential Impacts of Increases in Rainfall Intensity on the Lower Rio Grande
Susanna Glaze, Bobby J. Creel, Christopher Brown   
The 2008 Tanana River Flood: Where Did All the Water Come From?
Edward Plumb
Managing Future Floods Today: A Framework for Sustainable Risk Management
Adam Hosking, Jerry Sparks, Peter von Lany  
Protecting London from Tidal Flooding: Limits to Adaptation
Luke Lovell, Tim Reeder, Jonathan Wicks, Owen Tarrant
SESSION 28: Changing Climate Impacts on Water Resources and People I
Climate Change, Water Impacts, and Indigenous Peoples: Engaging Native Knowledge in Cross-Regional Comparison between Alaska, the Pacific Islands, and the American Southwest
Sarah Trainor, Jolene Tallsalt-Robertson, Cheryl Anderson, Dan Ferguson, Gregg Garfin  
Coastal Erosion in Alaska: Planning for the Future
Bruce Sexauer
Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Agent-Based Modeling Tools for Assessing Human-Hydrological Systems
Andrew Kliskey, Lilian Alessa, Mark Altaweel
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation of the Péribonka River Water Resources System (Quebec, Canada)
Marie Minville, Francois Brissette, Stephane Krau, Robert Leconte
SESSION 29: Water Supply Management II
Onsite Graywater Reuse: Treatment and Climate
Joe Yelderman, Nathan Griswell
Water Management With Wastewater Treatment and Reuse, Desalination, and
Conveyance to Counteract Climate Change in Gaza
Ahmed Al-Jaidi, David Rosenberg, Jagath J. Kaluarachchi
Comparing Methods to Investigate the Impacts of Climate Change
Rene Roy, Georges Desrochers, Luc Roy, Guenther Pacher, Frédéric Guay, Dominique Tapsoba
The North Slope Decision Support System for Water Resources Planning and Management
Stephen Bourne, Kelly Brumbelow, Amy Tidwell, Bill Schnabel
SESSION 30: Changing Streamflow and Water Availability
Projected River Ice Cover Changes By Mid-Century In Southern British Columbia
Paul Doyle, Jeptha Ball   
Risk Informed Planning - Hubbard Glacier Dam Induced Flood Near Yakutat Alaska
David Williams, George A Kalli
Estimates of Mean Annual Freshwater Discharge Into the Gulf of Alaska (1960-1990)
Eran Hood, K. M. Smikrud, E.G. Neal  
Statistical Implications of Global Warming for Water Yield - A Case Study
Qiang (Charles) Luo
SESSION 31: Changing Climate Impacts on Water Resources and People II
Effect of Downscaling Methods on the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in Watershed Scale Management Models
Shimelis Setegn, Assefa M. Melesse, Karim Abbaspour, Bijan Dargahi, Ragahavan Srinivasan
Natural Disasters and Extreme Climate Events: Impacts and Implications for Water Resources Management
Chennat Gopalakrishnan, Jason K. Levy
Inter-state Water Agreements in Federal Countries. A Comparative Analysis
Maria E. Milanes-Murcia
Managing Water Resources in Florida in an Uncertain Future
Mikel Renner
SESSION 32: Changing Water Demand and Uncertainty I
Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on U.S. Water Supply and Demand in the Next 50 Years
Ge Sun, Steven G. McNulty, Jennifer A. Moore Myers, Erika C. Cohen, Robert Herring   
Estimating Water Use in El Paso County Texas Based on GIS and Remote Sensing Imagery for the Past 30 Years
Jiao Wang, Nate Currit  
Management of Water Resources under Uncertainty in a Changing Climate
E. Annette Hernandez, Venkatesh Uddameri
Climate Change and Adaptive Drought Operations Planning in Water Supply
Steve Thurin, Emily Larson Flanagan
SESSION 33: Changing Energy and Water Balances
Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Energy and Water Balance of a North Temperate Lake
John Lenters, Kathleen D. Holman, Jun Wang  
The Importance of Air Mass Condition on Energy Fluxes at a Coastal Arctic Wetland
Anna Liljedahl, Larry Hinzman, Yoshinobu Harazono, Donatella Zona, Walter C. Oechel  
Glacier Variability in the Wind River Range and Teton Range, Wyoming, USA
Derrick Thompson, Jake Edmunds, Glenn Tootle, Jeb Bell, Greg Kerr  
Implementation of a GRTS Survey Design for Monitoring the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquatic Resources in Alaskan National Parks
Trey Simmons
SESSION 34: Changing Climate Impacts on Water Resources and People III
Developing a Framework to Assess Stream Flow from Global Climate Change Projections
William Samuels, Rakesh Bahadur, M. Elena Herrera, David E. Amstutz   
Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resource Plans
David Groves, Robert Lempert  
Economic Demand for Irrigation Water and Climate Change
Bryce Contor  
Assessing Potential Impacts of and Prioritizing Response to Global Climate Change: A Methodology and Action Plan for Water, Wastewater, or Stormwater Utilities
Amy Carlson
SESSION 35: Changing Water Demand and Uncertainty II
AWRVI: An Integrated Water Resource Vulnerability Index for the Arctic
Andrew Kliskey, Lilian Alessa   
Erosion of Water Supply Predictability under Climate Change?
Levi Brekke, Kevin Werner, Donald Laurine, David Garen  
Hydroclimatic Change on the Salt and Verde Watersheds, Arizona
Timothy Hawkins
SESSION 36: Changing Impacts on Reservoir Management
HGS-M - A Tool to Conjunctively and Dynamically Simulate Hydrologic Processes and Multi-reservoir Systems for Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts
Mary Kang, Varut Guvanasen, Kirk Nelson, George Matanga   
Southeast Alaska Hydropower: Reconsidering Climate Variability and Change in the Development Process
Jessica Cherry, Amy Tidwell, Nancy Fresco, Sue Walker
SESSION 37: Changing Ecosystems
Is the Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation in Colorado Due to Climate Change
Michael McHugh, Laurel Stadjuhar, Kristina Wynne  
Recent Woody Invasion of Wetlands on the Kenai Peninsula Lowlands, South-Central Alaska; A Major Regime Shift After 18,000 Years of Wet Sphagnum-Sedge Peat Recruitment
Edward Berg, Kacy McDonnell, Roman Dial, Allana DeRuwe
Forest Fuel Moisture Disturbances Across the United States in Response to Climate Change and Variability
Yongqiang Liu  
Predominate Selection of Low Water Using Trees in California Communities Would Preserve the State's Water Resources
David Dudley